Mexico’s 2024 Elections: What to Know

On June 2, nearly 100 million voters—including a record number of first-timers—will participate in Mexico’s largest-ever elections, choosing a new president, all 628 members of the legislature, 9 governors, and more than 19,000 local officials. The winning presidential candidate will succeed President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known also as AMLO, and govern Mexico for the next six years. 

But so far in the campaign, dozens of candidates have been killed, and hundreds more have asked for state protection—particularly those vying for positions at the state and local levels—amid record levels of violence.

Who are Mexicans voting for?

The leading presidential candidates are:

Claudia Sheinbaum. A former environmental scientist and Mexico City mayor, Sheinbaum is the candidate for the ruling National Regeneration Movement (Morena) coalition and the current front-runner.

Xóchitl Gálvez. A successful tech entrepreneur and former senator supported by an alliance of opposition parties, Gálvez trails Sheinbaum by double digits in most polls. 

Jorge Álvarez Máynez. Máynez, the candidate for the Movimiento Ciudadano (Citizens’ Movement) party, polls in the single digits. 

What will be the biggest challenge facing the incoming administration?

While the next president will benefit from the economic tailwinds of nearshoring (outsourcing business operations to nearby countries rather than far off ones), she faces a host of domestic challenges, including energy and water shortages, fiscal deficits, violence and the spread of organized crime, and the movement of millions of migrants into and through Mexico.

Economy. On the positive side, the next president inherits a growing economy, led by trade with the United States. In 2023, Mexico became the United States’s largest trade partner, with bilateral exchanges nearing $900 billion. Foreign direct investment (FDI) also rose, reaching $36 billion. Much of it was funneled into manufacturing and companies looking to place production outside of China to more easily access U.S. markets. Still, these inflows fell short compared to other emerging markets and Mexico’s own historic highs a decade ago. A top-fifteen global economy, Mexico received less than 3 percent of global FDI last year.

Limited energy and water availability present significant barriers to a nearshoring boom and Mexico’s industrial takeoff. A 2023 report from investment banking company Morgan Stanley estimated that Mexico needs to invest some $40 billion in power generation and distribution over the next presidential term to keep up with demand. To attract global manufacturing, much of this new electricity needs to be green. However, the current government’s policies have stymied private-sector energy investment and prioritized fossil-fuel electricity generation over the use of renewables. Eleven states and the capital, Mexico City, face significant water shortages due in large part to decrepit infrastructure. This affects water-intensive business operations, such as beermaking and, increasingly, citizens’ day-to-day life, and it looks to worsen with climate change.

While she is an environmental scientist, Sheinbaum is also a statist, so the shift to a greener energy mix will be slowed by her reliance on government and state-owned enterprise investment instead of the private sector. In contrast, Gálvez is more willing to embrace private investment in the energy sector, which could lead to more supply under her administration.

Security. The next president faces heightened insecurity and weakened rule of law. Over the past five years, Mexico has not gotten safer. The murder rate remains high and extortion rates have risen some 50 percent. Organized crime has spread geographically and expanded business operations, including protection rackets for avocado and lime farmers, contraband energy producers, and migrant smugglers. Complaints of public corruption are also rising. Meanwhile, the militarization of security has meant cuts to state and local law enforcement budgets, reducing the capability of civilian police.

She will also need to grapple with the expanded role of Mexico’s military. Current President AMLO put troops in charge of customs, allowing them to oversee ports, airports, and the management of many of the government’s largest infrastructure projects. This has limited transparency and accountability for major public works while leaving the military more vulnerable to the corrupt influence of organized crime groups. Rhetorically, Sheinbaum has not strayed from AMLO’s “hugs, not bullets” security approach that focuses more on social programs than law enforcement. She has also publicly supported the increased reliance on the military in domestic security, though as mayor she did invest in expanding, strengthening, and professionalizing the city’s civilian police force. Gálvez is likely to lean into enforcement alongside social programs to halt spiraling violence, in addition to prioritizing civilian policing in basic safety and the rule of law.

Migration. Migration is also a point of concern, as Mexico has become not just a sending country, but a major destination for sojourners. The Mexican government, working with the United States to limit migrant arrivals at the southern U.S. border, has broken up caravans, set up checkpoints, and bused migrants south. It has also accepted tens of thousands of individuals expelled from or told to wait in the country by the United States. Additionally, Mexico has seen record numbers of migrants apply for asylum; nearly five hundred thousand cases currently await adjudication, while hundreds of thousands more migrants now reside in Mexico without formal registration. None of the candidates has laid out plans to address the influx of migrants living in Mexico or cooperation with the United States, though migrants will continue to come. 

Finances. The next president will have less money to grapple with these challenges. While AMLO touts governmental austerity, his administration has been quite profligate. Budget deficits now approach 6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—levels not seen since the 1980s—even amid lagging public investments in roads, rails, airports, and border crossings. And the state-owned energy company Petróleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, remains a financial albatross. AMLO injected over $90 billion in Pemex to keep it afloat, but it still owes more than $100 billion, making it the world’s most indebted oil company. The global credit rating agency Moody’s predicts that business as usual at Pemex will soon cost Mexico’s treasury nearly $18 billion per year. Yet, restructuring Pemex remains politically fraught, making significant reforms difficult. 

How could the results shape Mexico’s relations with the United States?

Trade. Mexico and the United States will each have an opportunity to shift and expand bilateral relations under their new administrations, after the U.S. election in November. Commercial issues loom large, including current disputes over energy and genetically modified corn. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement is up for review in 2026, and all three countries must agree to keep the free trade accord going for the next sixteen years or the rules will become temporary, dependent on yearly agreements. Meanwhile, China will dominate trade discussions as the United States leans on its neighbors to join it in delinking strategic industries and protecting its electric vehicle and other markets from its geopolitical rival. More fundamentally, both Mexico and the United States have yet to make the most of North American supply chains and commerce in ways that increase the competitiveness of domestic industries and their resilience to geopolitical forces. 

Security. With Mexican-made fentanyl and other illicit drugs killing upward of one hundred thousand Americans each year, security cooperation needs a push. A new Mexican administration could revive diminished ties and return to broader intelligence sharing, money tracing, customs enforcement, police training and equipping, and other methods to address mutual safety and security concerns.

Migration. Migration, too, will be a major focus, as people are on the move throughout the hemisphere and beyond. Here, the United States needs to get its own house in order and invest in the substantial number of judges, asylum officers, and other administrators needed to expeditiously and efficiently process migrant cases. It also can, and should, help Mexico amp up similar capabilities to ensure quicker and more-humane resolutions for the people whose lives depend on the outcomes. 

This publication is part of the Diamonstein-Spielvogel Project on the Future of Democracy.